23% of Biden's 2020 Hispanic Voters Stayed Home in 2024, Pew Data Shows Larger Non-White Swing Away From Democrats

Newly released data from the Pew Research Center's "Validated Voters" study indicates that a significant portion of President Biden's 2020 non-white voter base shifted away from the Democratic Party in the 2024 election, primarily by opting not to vote rather than crossing over to support Donald Trump. Political analyst Ronald Brownstein highlighted this trend, stating in a recent tweet, > "Previously unpublished data from @pewresearch Validated Voters shows more of Biden's 2020 non-white than white voters swung away from Dems in 24-and that the swing was expressed much more by voters staying home than crossing over to back Trump."

The Pew analysis reveals that while a modest percentage of Biden's 2020 voters switched directly to Trump in 2024—6% of white, 5% of Black, 7% of Hispanic, and 9% of Asian voters—the more impactful trend was the higher rate of non-participation among non-white groups. Specifically, 19% of Biden's 2020 Black and Asian American supporters did not vote in 2024, a figure that climbed to 23% for his Hispanic supporters. This contrasts with just 12% of Biden's 2020 white voters who stayed home.

Donald Trump notably made gains among non-white demographics in 2024, securing 48% of the Hispanic vote, up from 36% in 2020, and increasing his support among Black voters to 15% from 8%. His backing among Asian voters also rose to 40% from 30%. These shifts were largely driven by differential turnout patterns, including a significant move among naturalized citizens, who favored Biden by 21 points in 2020 but split their votes almost evenly between Harris and Trump in 2024.

The findings suggest a complex electoral dynamic where the traditional understanding of "swing voters" now encompasses those who cycle in and out of the electorate. Among eligible voters who did not cast a ballot in 2024, Pew found a slight preference for Trump (44%) over Harris (40%), a reversal from 2020 when non-voters leaned Democratic. This indicates that a higher overall turnout in 2024 might not have necessarily benefited the Democratic candidate, as many disaffected voters chose abstention over defection.