Analysis Suggests Trump-Era Deportations Offset Three-Quarters of Biden's Daily Border Releases

A recent social media post by analyst Noah Smith has drawn attention to a comparative analysis of U.S. border policies, suggesting that former President Donald Trump's daily deportation rates effectively offset approximately three-quarters of the daily impact from President Joe Biden's border policies. Smith, however, noted the data, attributed to Josh Rainer Gold, "looks slightly fishy" in his assessment, highlighting a contentious aspect of immigration policy. The tweet focused on the numerical balance between removals and new arrivals, sparking further discussion on border enforcement metrics.

During the Trump administration, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) conducted significant numbers of formal removals. In Fiscal Year 2019, ICE removed 267,258 individuals, averaging approximately 732 deportations per day. Fiscal Year 2020 saw a decrease to 185,884 removals, or about 509 per day, partly due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with these figures generally excluding expulsions under Title 42.

The Biden administration has faced record numbers of migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border, often exceeding 7,000-10,000 daily during peak periods. While the administration has also conducted deportations and expulsions, particularly under Title 42 until its termination in May 2023, it has expanded pathways for legal entry and asylum processing. This has led to more individuals being processed and released into the U.S. with notices to appear in court, a process often referred to as "border opening" by critics.

The data cited by Noah Smith originates from Josh Rainer Gold, a Research Fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS). CIS is a think tank that advocates for lower immigration levels and stricter enforcement, and its research methodologies and conclusions are sometimes subject to criticism for perceived biases by pro-immigrant groups and academics. The complexity of comparing differing policy frameworks, such as formal removals versus rapid expulsions or asylum releases, contributes to the difficulty in establishing a universally accepted "net" daily impact.

The ongoing debate underscores the challenges in quantifying the precise daily effects of U.S. immigration policies. Different administrations have employed varied strategies, from Trump's emphasis on deterrence and rapid removals to Biden's approach involving increased processing and expanded parole programs, making direct numerical comparisons intricate and often subject to interpretation.