Economist and prominent commentator Noah Smith recently articulated a stark assessment of Russia's geopolitical strategy, characterizing it as a "Ponzi empire" that relies on the subjugation of conquered peoples to facilitate further expansion. In a social media post, Smith outlined a sequential model of conquest, suggesting a continuous cycle of exploitation and aggression across Eastern Europe. His analysis underscores ongoing concerns regarding Russia's imperialistic ambitions amidst the protracted conflict in Ukraine.
"Russia is a Ponzi empire. It always turns newly conquered peoples into slaves to conquer the next group of people," Noah Smith stated in his tweet. He elaborated on this mechanism, adding, "If Russia conquers Ukraine, it will use Ukrainian slaves to attack Poland. If it conquers Poland, it will use Polish slaves to attack Germany." This perspective highlights a perceived strategy where each territorial gain provides the human and material resources for the next phase of expansion.
Smith, known for his economic and geopolitical commentary on his "Noahpinion" Substack, has consistently voiced critical views on Russian foreign policy. His analysis often frames Russia's actions as driven by an "ideology and identity of expansion and imperialism," particularly focusing on what he terms "ethnic imperialism"—the absorption of neighboring states based on linguistic or cultural ties. This aligns with his broader argument that Europe must unite to counter Russia's aggressive stance.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which escalated significantly with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, serves as a focal point for such discussions. Despite heavy losses and a slow pace of advance, Russia continues its military operations, with objectives that observers like Smith interpret as attempts to reassert control over former Soviet territories and beyond. The war, now in its fourth year, has seen continued fighting, extensive drone and missile attacks, and persistent international efforts to support Ukraine's defense.
Smith's "Ponzi empire" analogy suggests a self-perpetuating system of aggression, where the success of one conquest fuels the capacity for the next, posing a direct threat to the stability and security of neighboring nations and the broader European continent. This viewpoint resonates with fears among NATO members and other European countries regarding Russia's long-term strategic intentions. The international community remains divided on pathways to peace, with Russia's stated demands for a settlement largely unchanged, reinforcing the perception of its unwavering expansionist goals.