Analyst Warns of China's Strategic Challenge to US Global Order

Prominent economist and writer Noah Smith recently articulated a stark view on the escalating US-China rivalry, suggesting that the "stakes would be a lot lower here if China didn't want to kick our ass." This statement underscores a growing consensus among analysts regarding Beijing's assertive posture and its long-term strategic objectives to reshape the global order.

Smith, known for his commentary on economic and geopolitical trends, posits that under President Xi Jinping, China has actively initiated a shift towards rivalry, aiming to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power. "Xi Jinping seemed dead set on having China supplant the U.S. as the world’s dominant power," Smith stated in a recent blog post, highlighting a fundamental change in Beijing's approach. This ambition extends beyond economic competition to encompass control over global trade lanes, both maritime and digital.

Beijing's strategic actions include efforts to control critical sea lanes, particularly in the South China Sea, and influence internet infrastructure, challenging the long-standing US-led principle of "Freedom of the Seas" and open internet access. Smith noted that China "wants to control the lanes of global trade and… the internet." This pursuit of control is seen as a direct threat to the global trading regime that has historically benefited the US and its allies.

Furthermore, Smith points to China's use of "sharp power" and influence operations, such as the TikTok algorithm, as tools to destabilize US society. These tactics aim to sow discord and weaken American unity, thereby diminishing the US's capacity to counter China's global ambitions. "China would like us to be weaker simply so that we don't get a vote in the future," Smith explained, emphasizing Beijing's desire to reduce US influence to a point where it "doesn't matter" geopolitically.

The US response, including export controls on advanced technology like semiconductors, is primarily aimed at maintaining a military technological edge. This is crucial for conventional deterrence, particularly in areas such as autonomous drone swarms and precision weaponry. Smith elaborated that these controls are "one piece of how we do that" to prevent China from gaining overwhelming military superiority, especially in potential flashpoints like Taiwan. While some predict a "pause" in competition under certain US political developments, the underlying strategic tensions and China's long-term goals suggest a continued high-stakes rivalry.