Andrew Chen: Viral Factor Below 1.0 Still Valuable, But Retention is Key to Sustainable Growth

Industry expert Andrew Chen has presented a comprehensive analysis arguing that many contemporary "viral" marketing techniques, such as ragebaiting, cinematic launch trailers, and influencer astroturfing, offer diminishing returns and do not foster sustainable user acquisition. Chen, a general partner at Andreessen Horowitz and author of "The Cold Start Problem," contends that these methods primarily generate one-time traffic spikes rather than scalable growth. He emphasizes that while a viral factor below 1.0 remains valuable, strong user retention is now the paramount driver of long-term product success.

Chen critiques current social media-driven virality, stating, "When people talk about 'going viral' these days the state of the art -- if you can call that -- is a hodgepodge of shitpoasting and social media videos." He contrasts these with classic viral techniques like referral programs and sharing links, which have proven their efficacy across multiple eras. The core issue, according to Chen, is that modern tactics fail to scale new users proportionally to daily active users, leading to linear rather than exponential growth.

The "golden age" of virality during the Web 2.0 era, characterized by email invite loops and rapid growth of platforms like Facebook and LinkedIn, concluded with the shift to mobile. Chen explains that consumers became accustomed to these techniques, response rates declined, and mobile platforms introduced new constraints on contact sharing. This transition made it "basically impossible to create loops where the viral factor is >1 in the first session."

In the contemporary landscape, Chen posits that sustainable virality relies on two main components: diversified top-of-funnel acquisition channels and, crucially, strong retention. He asserts that a product with high retention generates numerous user sessions, allowing the viral factor to accumulate over time. "The viral factor is not generated by how many invites you send in one session. The viral factor is generated by the sum of all the viral features that you engage with over all of your sessions," Chen elaborated.

Even with viral factors typically below 1.0 (e.g., 0.2 or 0.3), Chen notes that these still provide significant value by reducing Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) and amplifying marketing efforts. He observes that current AI tools are leveraging "create and share" viral loops, where the novel output of generative AI models aligns well with visual social media trends, enabling widespread distribution. Ultimately, Chen concludes that "low retention apps need to be spammy. Sticky apps do not," underscoring retention as the fundamental engine for enduring viral growth.