AUKUS Submarine Deal Review Extends for Months, US Pressures Australia for Increased Defense Spending

The AUKUS trilateral security pact, particularly its nuclear submarine component, faces prolonged uncertainty as a Pentagon review, initiated by the Trump administration, extends well beyond its initial 30-day timeframe. This ongoing appraisal has raised concerns among allies, including Australia, about the deal's future and its implications for the long-standing US-Australia military alliance. Bloomberg Opinion columnist James Stavridis questioned on social media, > "Australia has been America's best military ally for a century, so why is the Pentagon putting it at risk by holding up the AUKUS submarine deal?"

The review, led by Undersecretary of Defense Elbridge Colby, aims to align the AUKUS agreement with the "America First" agenda, focusing on the readiness of US forces and the capacity of its defense industrial base. Concerns have been voiced regarding the US ability to meet its own Virginia-class submarine production needs while also supplying Australia, a key component of Pillar One of the pact. Colby has previously expressed skepticism about the US "giving away" its "crown jewels" of defense technology.

Despite the review, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Defense Minister Richard Marles have expressed confidence in the deal's continuation, viewing the review as a natural process for a new US administration. However, the US has concurrently pressed Australia to significantly increase its defense spending, urging a rise from approximately 2% to 3.5% of its GDP. This demand adds a new dimension to the alliance dynamics amidst the ongoing review.

Analysts suggest the review is unlikely to dismantle the AUKUS agreement entirely, given its bipartisan support in the US and its strategic importance in countering China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. However, the extended timeline and the US demands for increased Australian defense contributions introduce uncertainty and potential shifts in the pact's implementation. The deal, valued at hundreds of billions of dollars, is seen as crucial for Australia's long-term security needs and regional stability.

While the Pentagon has stated it seeks to "make this thing work," the lack of a public timeline for the review's completion continues to fuel speculation. The situation underscores the complex interplay of domestic policy, industrial capacity, and allied burden-sharing in major international defense agreements. All eyes remain on Washington for further clarity on the path forward for this pivotal security partnership.