Black Friday 2025 Sees Record Online Sales Amidst Robust "Boomer Economy," Lumida's Ahluwalia Notes

Record-breaking online sales characterized Black Friday 2025, with consumers demonstrating strong spending power, according to preliminary reports and market analysis. Ram Ahluwalia, CFA, CEO of Lumida, highlighted these robust figures, attributing the surge to a resilient "services led, baby boomer economy fueled by transfer payments and a wealth effect," rather than speculative anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts. This economic backdrop has significantly benefited consumer discretionary sectors.

Adobe Analytics reported that U.S. e-commerce sales reached a record $11.8 billion on Black Friday, marking a 9.1% year-over-year increase and surpassing initial forecasts. Salesforce data corroborated this trend, indicating $18 billion in U.S. online sales, a 3% rise. These figures underscore a continued shift towards digital shopping, with online channels dominating the traditional start of the holiday season.

Ahluwalia, known for his "quantamental" investment approach, emphasized that the "real economy continues to grow at a healthy rate with a pattern of disinflation." This perspective suggests a fundamental strength in consumer spending, particularly among older demographics benefiting from wealth effects and transfer payments. Lumida, a financial advisory firm with a focus on alternative investments and digital assets, often provides non-consensus market insights.

Despite the strong overall sales, the landscape for retailers was complex. While online sales soared, in-store traffic presented a mixed picture, with some reports indicating slight declines. The average selling prices for goods increased by 7% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures, even as online discounts remained largely flat compared to the previous year. The use of "Buy Now, Pay Later" options also saw an 8.9% increase, signaling consumers' reliance on flexible financing.

A notable trend was the significant rise in AI-driven traffic to retail websites, with Adobe reporting an 805% increase compared to 2024. This indicates a growing consumer adoption of AI tools for shopping efficiency and deal-finding. Retailers focused on exclusive in-store perks and diversified sales strategies to attract shoppers in an increasingly competitive and evolving Black Friday environment, which has expanded into a "Black November" with prolonged promotional periods.