California Projected to Lose Up to Four Congressional Seats by 2030 Despite Recent Population Rebound

California's recent population growth, marking two consecutive years of increases, contrasts sharply with projections indicating the state could lose multiple congressional seats following the 2030 Census. Political analyst Rob Pyers, in a recent tweet, expressed anticipation for "how many congressional seats California gains in 2030 after this population explosion," a sentiment that appears to diverge from current demographic trends and expert forecasts.

The Golden State's population grew by 192,219 residents in 2023 and an additional 108,000 in 2024, according to data from the California Department of Finance. This marks a significant turnaround after a period of decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, nearly restoring the state to its pre-pandemic population peak. Governor Gavin Newsom celebrated this growth, stating, "People from across the nation and the globe are coming to the Golden State to pursue the California Dream."

Despite this recent uptick, long-term trends and comparative growth rates suggest a challenging outlook for California's political representation. The state notably lost a congressional seat for the first time in its history after the 2020 Census, dropping from 53 to 52 representatives, due to its population growth rate falling behind the national average. The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) projects that if current demographic patterns persist, California could face the loss of as many as four additional House seats in the 2030 reapportionment.

The state's population gains are primarily driven by a natural increase (more births than deaths) and a resurgence in legal international immigration, which helps offset persistent domestic out-migration. While some major cities like Los Angeles, San Diego, and Bakersfield have seen population rebounds, others, particularly in the Bay Area such as San Francisco and San Jose, continue to experience slight declines, often linked to housing affordability challenges. The overall slower growth relative to other states, particularly those in the Sun Belt, remains a key factor in the projected congressional seat shifts.

This potential reduction in congressional representation underscores the demographic shifts occurring across the United States. While California remains the most populous state, its historical rapid growth has moderated, leading to significant implications for its influence in the U.S. House of Representatives in the coming decade.