California's Proposition 50, Targeting Five Republican Seats, Heads to November 4 Vote

California voters are set to decide on Proposition 50 in a special election on November 4, 2025, a measure that would temporarily shift congressional redistricting power from an independent commission back to the state legislature. Governor Gavin Newsom and the Democratic supermajority championed the initiative, framing it as a necessary response to partisan redistricting efforts in other states, particularly Texas. However, critics, including Kevin Dalton, have labeled it a "power grab," with Dalton stating in a recent tweet, "> Prop 50 is a power grab by Gavin Newsom and the democrat supermajority in California. Vote NO on Prop 50."

The "Use of Legislative Congressional Redistricting Map Amendment," also known as the "Election Rigging Response Act," aims to counteract potential Republican gains from mid-decade redistricting in states like Texas. If passed, Proposition 50 would replace the maps drawn by the California Citizens Redistricting Commission with new, legislatively drawn maps for congressional elections starting in 2026, lasting until the 2030 U.S. Census. This move would temporarily suspend the independent commission's authority, which was established by voter-approved amendments in 2008 and 2010.

The proposed legislative maps, drafted by Democratic redistricting expert Paul Mitchell and submitted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, are designed to target five seats currently held by Republicans. These include districts represented by Doug LaMalfa, Kevin Kiley, David Valadao, Ken Calvert, and Darrell Issa, with adjustments intended to favor Democratic candidates. Proponents argue these changes are crucial to maintain California's influence in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Opposition to Proposition 50 is significant and bipartisan, with critics echoing Dalton's sentiment that the measure is a partisan maneuver. Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are among those actively campaigning against it, arguing it undermines the independent redistricting process voters previously approved. Legal challenges filed by Republican state legislators to block the measure were rejected by the California Supreme Court.

Despite Dalton's tweet asserting that "Prop 50 has nothing to do with President Trump," the former President announced his intention for the U.S. Justice Department to sue California over the measure. Governor Newsom publicly challenged Trump's statement, indicating a direct political confrontation. The partisan divide is evident, with prominent national Democrats, including former President Barack Obama and Vice President Kamala Harris, endorsing the proposition, while national Republican figures oppose it.

The measure is estimated to incur minor one-time costs of up to a few million dollars for counties and approximately $200,000 for the state to update election materials. If approved, the independent Citizens Redistricting Commission is slated to resume its map-drawing duties following the 2030 U.S. Census.