Cato Institute Scholars Warn Against Venezuela Regime Change, Citing Risk of 'Endless Wars'

Washington D.C. – Justin Logan and Brandan Buck, foreign policy research fellows at the Cato Institute, have co-authored an article in The American Conservative urging the President of the United States to refrain from pursuing regime change in Venezuela. Logan announced the publication, stating, "> In @amconmag, @brandan_buck and I have a piece urging POTUS not to regime-change Venezuela." The article, titled "Don’t Do It, Mr. President," was published on October 29, 2025, and critically examines the potential ramifications of U.S. military intervention.

The authors contend that despite President Trump's campaign promises to avoid foreign entanglements, his administration appears to be moving towards intervention in Venezuela. Recent deployments, including a Marine Expeditionary Unit and the USS Gerald Ford carrier strike group to the Caribbean, signal a potential escalation. Logan and Buck dismiss the administration's stated justification of drug interdiction, arguing that fentanyl does not originate from Venezuela and the vessels in question lack the range to reach the United States.

The article draws on historical precedents, highlighting past U.S. interventions in Latin America, such as those in Nicaragua and Haiti, which often led to prolonged and unsuccessful outcomes. The authors caution that forcibly changing the Venezuelan regime, a country more than twice the size of Iraq with a military loyal to its leadership, risks creating a "quagmire" akin to the "endless wars" experienced in the Middle East. Such an outcome, they argue, would contradict the President's stated desire to be a "peacemaker."

Logan and Buck, both affiliated with the libertarian Cato Institute, emphasize that the administration's authorization of CIA covert action in Venezuela could further fuel anti-American sentiment and lend credibility to claims of U.S. meddling. Their analysis underscores the significant risks and historical failures associated with military intervention, advocating for restraint and a re-evaluation of the current foreign policy trajectory towards Venezuela.