Claims of Disproportionate Transgender Involvement in Mass Shootings Contradicted by Expert Analysis

Recent claims circulating on social media, notably from X user Frank McCormick (@CBHeresy), assert that transgender and non-binary individuals are disproportionately responsible for mass shootings in the United States. A tweet posted on August 27, 2025, presented per-million statistics for public incidents (4+ killed) between 2015 and 2025, placing "Trans/NB (Bio Male)" and "Trans/NB (Bio Female)" at the top of the list.

The tweet stated:

"Who commits mass shootings? 2015–2025 public incidents (4+ killed), per million: 1.Trans/NB (Bio Male) – 0.769 2.Trans/NB (Bio Female) – 0.667 3.Asian Men – 0.408 4. Black Men – 0.198 5.White Men – 0.176 6.Asian Women – 0.097 7.Hispanic Men – 0.094"

However, analyses from reputable sources and extremism experts strongly contradict these assertions, finding no evidence to support a rising trend of violent extremism or "trans terrorism" within the LGBTQ+ community. Experts in criminology and human security emphasize that such claims misrepresent existing data on mass violence.

According to PolitiFact, which investigated similar claims, mass shootings are most commonly perpetrated by young, cisgender men, and the majority of extremist attacks in recent decades have been motivated by right-wing ideologies. Experts like Victor Asal, a political science professor at the University at Albany, and Adam Lankford, a criminology professor at the University of Alabama, confirm that data does not indicate an increasing threat from transgender individuals in terms of violence.

The number of mass shootings potentially linked to transgender individuals, even when considering cases where gender identity is debated or unconfirmed, represents a minuscule fraction of the total incidents. For instance, out of 3,399 mass shootings recorded by the Gun Violence Archive between 2018 and February 2024, only a handful have involved individuals identified as transgender or non-binary, accounting for approximately 0.17% of incidents. This figure is significantly lower than the estimated 0.5% to 1.6% of the U.S. adult population that identifies as transgender, indicating that transgender individuals are underrepresented among perpetrators, not overrepresented.

In stark contrast to the claims of transgender perpetration, research from the Williams Institute at UCLA School of Law indicates that transgender individuals are disproportionately victims of violent crime and hate crimes. The institute found that transgender people are four times likelier to be victims of violent crime than cisgender people and nine times likelier to be victims of violent hate crimes. This highlights a critical distinction between being a target of violence and being a perpetrator.

Overall, the statistics presented in the tweet by Frank McCormick are not supported by comprehensive, objective data or expert analysis. Discussions around mass violence require reliance on verified information to avoid perpetuating misleading narratives about specific demographic groups.