Cognitive Skills Key to Bridging Racial Mobility Gaps, New Research Suggests

Washington D.C. – A series of studies by economist Bhashkar Mazumder and his collaborators, drawing primarily on data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79), indicate that differences in cognitive skills, as measured by standardized tests in adolescence, are a significant factor in explaining the persistent disparities in economic mobility between Black and White Americans. The research highlights that when these skill differences are accounted for, racial gaps in upward mobility are substantially reduced, or in some cases, nearly eliminated.

The NLSY79, a comprehensive, nationally representative longitudinal survey, tracks thousands of young Americans over decades, collecting extensive data on their education, employment, health, and cognitive abilities, notably through the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) scores. This rich dataset has allowed researchers to delve into the complex dynamics of intergenerational economic movement.

According to a 2008 report by Mazumder for the Pew Charitable Trusts, and further elaborated in a 2011 paper co-authored with Debopam Bhattacharya, "measures of human capital during adolescence, particularly test scores, could explain the entire black-white upward economic mobility gap." The studies introduce a refined measure of "upward mobility" that assesses an individual's likelihood of surpassing their parents' economic rank. While initial analyses showed stark differences in mobility rates between Black and White individuals, these gaps narrowed considerably when adolescent AFQT scores were factored in. For instance, among individuals who started in the bottom income quintile, the likelihood of moving out of that quintile showed a significant racial disparity. However, when controlling for AFQT scores, this disparity largely disappeared.

Subsequent work by Mazumder and colleagues, including a 2014 study published in Economic Perspectives, reinforced these findings, demonstrating the robustness of the link between early cognitive skills and later economic outcomes. This research suggests that individuals, regardless of race, with higher academic test scores are more likely to improve their economic standing.

The findings contribute to a broader academic discussion on the root causes of socioeconomic inequality. While the studies do not definitively attribute the cognitive skill differences to any single factor, acknowledging that such skills are shaped by a range of influences including early childhood environment, parental investment, and school quality, they underscore the critical role these skills play in intergenerational mobility. The consistent results across multiple analyses using the NLSY79 data underscore the importance of addressing skill disparities as a pathway to fostering greater economic opportunity across racial lines.