COMAC Projected to Triple Aircraft Deliveries to 145 Annually by 2030 Amid China's Aviation Independence Drive

Shanghai, China – The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) is poised to significantly increase its aircraft delivery rate, with aviation consultancy IBA forecasting a more than threefold rise to 145 aircraft per year by 2030. This projection underscores China's determined ambition to forge an independent commercial aviation industry, as highlighted by a recent tweet from The National Bureau of Asian Research. The tweet stated, "IBA is forecasting that the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) will more than triple its rate of aircraft deliveries to 145 per year by 2030, marking steady progress in China’s ambition to establish an independent commercial aviation industry."

COMAC, a state-owned aerospace manufacturer established in 2008, is at the forefront of China's efforts to challenge the long-standing duopoly of Airbus and Boeing. Its flagship narrow-body jet, the C919, entered commercial service in May 2023 with China Eastern Airlines, directly competing with the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737. The company also produces the C909 regional jet and is developing the C929 wide-body aircraft.

Despite ambitious targets, COMAC's production ramp-up has faced challenges, including a significant reliance on foreign components. The C919, for instance, is exclusively powered by CFM International LEAP-1C engines, a joint venture between GE Aerospace and Safran. In May 2025, the United States temporarily suspended export licenses for these critical engines to COMAC, citing trade tensions. However, these restrictions were lifted in early July 2025, allowing GE Aerospace to resume shipments and providing crucial breathing room for COMAC's production schedule. China is also actively developing its indigenous CJ-1000A engine to reduce this foreign dependency.

COMAC's primary focus remains the vast domestic Chinese market, where its C919 and C909 aircraft are increasingly being integrated into the fleets of major airlines like China Eastern, Air China, and China Southern. The manufacturer is also making inroads into Southeast Asian markets, with C909 deliveries to Indonesia's TransNusa and Laos Airlines, and active discussions for C919 orders from carriers in countries like Pakistan. However, securing international certification from major regulators like the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), which is not expected before 2028-2031, remains a key hurdle for broader global acceptance.

The projected increase in deliveries by 2030 signifies a critical phase in China's long-term strategy for aerospace self-sufficiency. While challenges persist in achieving full independence from foreign suppliers and gaining widespread international certification, COMAC's steady progress positions it as a growing force in the global commercial aviation landscape, gradually reshaping the market dynamics.