Crime Concerns Drive Down Public Transit Ridership, Research Confirms

Recent data and expert commentary highlight a significant challenge facing public transportation systems: the deterrent effect of crime on ridership. While statistical risks of violent crime on transit may be lower than other everyday activities, public perception of safety plays a crucial role in shaping travel behavior and undermining efforts to boost public transport use.

"people care about risks they feel they can't control (flying on airplanes, terrorism), and there's research showing crime deters transit ridership,"

tweeted prominent commentator Noah Smith, underscoring the psychological aspect of transit safety. This sentiment is echoed by recent studies and congressional discussions.

Research from the Inter-American Development Bank, analyzing six Latin American capitals, found that users place a substantial premium (51% of the current bus ticket) on safer transport options. The study also revealed that higher crime rates diminish the likelihood of choosing public transport, even with reduced fares, and shift public support towards crime reduction initiatives over service efficiency or environmental policies. Similarly, a 2024 study on transit ridership in Texas cities confirmed a negative association between crime rates and ridership, suggesting that higher crime rates can lead to lower transit use.

The issue has also garnered attention at the federal level in the United States. Following a roundtable discussion, leaders of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee called for improved safety on U.S. transit systems. According to the Congressional Research Service, crime on public transportation has worsened since the COVID-19 pandemic, with homicides on transit systems more than doubling and assaults increasing by 80% between 2020 and 2024 compared to the preceding five years.

This rise in crime and the associated fear directly impacts public trust and ridership. Congressman Sam Graves (R-MO), Chairman of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, stated that criminal activity "can undermine public confidence, decrease ridership, and damage the effectiveness and sustainability of those systems." The findings collectively emphasize that addressing safety concerns and improving the perception of security are critical for encouraging greater public transit utilization and ensuring the long-term viability of these essential services.