Data-Driven Public Safety Advocate Rafael Mangual Highlights Crime Surge and Policy Impact

New York, NY – Rafael A. Mangual, the Nick Ohnell Fellow and head of research for policing and public safety at the Manhattan Institute, asserts that recent criminal justice reforms have contributed to a significant increase in violent crime, particularly impacting vulnerable communities. Mangual, author of "Criminal (In)Justice: What the Push for Decarceration and Depolicing Gets Wrong and Who It Hurts Most," frequently uses data to challenge prevailing narratives on crime trends and policy effectiveness. His work emphasizes the critical role of robust policing and incarceration in maintaining public safety.

Mangual points to a substantial rise in homicides and other serious violent crimes in numerous U.S. cities since 2020, a trend he argues is undeniable despite some attempts to downplay it. He notes that while national aggregates might not reflect 1990s peaks, many specific urban areas are experiencing crime rates as high as or higher than in decades. This localized surge disproportionately affects communities of color, with Mangual highlighting that in New York City, over 95% of shooting victims are Black or Latino.

His research, supported by the Manhattan Institute's focus on evidence-based policy, contends that policies promoting "decarceration" and "depolicing" inadvertently increase public safety risks. Mangual argues that a large majority of individuals incarcerated in state prisons are serving time for serious violent offenses, and recidivism rates for released prisoners are high, with 80-83% rearrested within ten years. He maintains that releasing these individuals without adequate consideration of public safety poses a direct threat to communities.

The Manhattan Institute's public safety initiative advocates for data-informed strategies, such as their New York Crime Dashboard, to provide accurate crime statistics for policymakers and the public. Mangual also addresses the challenges in police recruitment and retention, suggesting that increased scrutiny and perceived lack of support deter qualified candidates, potentially leading to a decline in the quality of policing. He stresses that effective policing, guided by data, is crucial for crime reduction and the overall well-being of urban populations.

"The effects of serious violent crime are not evenly distributed. Criminal violence has long been both geographically and demographically hyper-concentrated," Mangual stated in a discussion about his book, underscoring that the benefits of crime reduction are most profoundly felt by the very communities most affected by violence. He advocates for a renewed focus on traditional crime control measures, arguing they are essential for restoring safety.