Recent data and academic studies suggest that native-born populations in the U.S. are more likely to be involved in violent crime than foreign nationals. This perspective was highlighted in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece by Jason Riley, who stated, > "Data show that it’s the native population, not foreign nationals, that tends to drive violent crime in the U.S."
Numerous research findings support this assertion. A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), utilizing comprehensive arrest data from the Texas Department of Public Safety between 2012 and 2018, found that undocumented immigrants had "considerably lower felony arrest rates" compared to legal immigrants and native-born U.S. citizens. This study observed no evidence that undocumented criminality has increased in recent years.
Further research reinforces these findings. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) released a working paper in July 2023, co-led by Northwestern University economist Elisa Jácome, which presented the first historical comparison of incarceration rates. This study, spanning 150 years, concluded that immigrants have never been incarcerated at a greater rate than those born in the United States. Since 1960, immigrants have consistently been less likely to be incarcerated than U.S.-born individuals.
The Brennan Center for Justice also noted that substantial research indicates immigration is not linked to higher crime levels; rather, studies often show the opposite. For instance, undocumented immigrants were found to be 33 percent less likely to be incarcerated than U.S.-born individuals, and a Texas study revealed they were 47 percent less likely to be convicted of a crime in 2017. The Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, has published multiple reports concluding that immigrants in the country commit crimes at lower rates than the native-born population.
These studies analyze various crime categories, including violent, property, and drug offenses. For example, U.S.-born citizens are reportedly over two times more likely to be arrested for violent crimes, 2.5 times more likely for drug crimes, and over four times more likely for property crimes relative to undocumented immigrants. While high-profile cases involving immigrants do occur, researchers like Jack Stowell of Northeastern University emphasize that such instances are "really rare" and that communities with more immigrants often see lower crime rates.