Washington D.C. – Economist Robin Hanson, a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University and associate professor at George Mason University, recently published an analysis identifying six key drivers behind centuries-long cultural trends. In a post on his "Overcoming Bias" blog, Hanson stated, "Here is a summary of as many centuries-long culture trends as I can find, organized by six key drivers, only two of which are very plausibly adaptive." The analysis delves into the complex evolution of human culture over extended periods.
Hanson's work often challenges conventional wisdom, exploring how cultural traits emerge, persist, and influence societal development. His latest summary suggests that while numerous factors shape long-term cultural shifts, a significant portion of these drivers may not contribute to adaptive, or beneficial, outcomes for societies. This perspective aligns with his broader concept of "cultural drift," where cultural features might move away from optimal states due to weakened selection pressures.
The blog post, titled "Modern Culture Trends," builds upon Hanson's extensive research into cultural evolution. He has previously theorized that in recent centuries, cultural variety and selection pressures have significantly decreased, while internal rates of cultural change have increased. This imbalance, he argues, could lead to maladaptive cultural behaviors and norms, particularly those that are widely shared within a "world elite monoculture."
Hanson's analysis prompts consideration of whether contemporary cultural trajectories are genuinely adaptive or if they represent a departure from historically beneficial patterns. His insights are part of an ongoing discussion among academics and public intellectuals regarding the long-term health and direction of human civilization. The full details of the six drivers and their adaptive potential are elaborated in his blog post.