EIA Forecasts US Crude Production to Drop to 13.28 Million BPD in 2026 After Record 13.41 Million BPD in 2025

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook that U.S. crude oil production is projected to decline in 2026, marking the first such decrease since 2021. This comes after an anticipated record-setting year in 2025, where output is expected to reach an all-time high. The forecast reflects a significant shift in the domestic oil landscape, driven primarily by evolving market dynamics and price expectations.

According to the EIA's August report, U.S. crude production is set to hit a record 13.41 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, a peak attributed to continued increases in well productivity. However, this growth trajectory is not expected to continue, with the agency forecasting a decline to 13.28 million bpd in 2026. This projected downturn signals a response to anticipated lower global oil prices.

The anticipated decline in U.S. output is largely linked to the EIA's forecast for Brent crude oil prices, which are expected to average around $51 per barrel in 2026. This significant drop from current levels is predicted to prompt U.S. producers to reduce drilling and well completion activities. The slowdown in investment and operations is a direct consequence of a market facing potential oversupply, partly due to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) unwinding their production cuts.

The shift in forecast has prompted discussions among industry observers, with some questioning the future of aggressive drilling campaigns. As noted by energy analyst Susan Li in a recent tweet,

"US CRUDE PRODUCTION TO DECLINE IN 2026 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2021, EIA ESTIMATES US CRUDE PRODUCTION TO REACH A RECORD 13.41 MILLION BPD IN 2025, EIA ESTIMATES What happened to drill baby drill?" This sentiment reflects a broader industry pivot towards capital discipline and shareholder returns rather than solely focusing on volume growth, especially in a lower price environment. The expected lower crude prices are also anticipated to translate into reduced retail gasoline prices for consumers in the coming years.