Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt has issued a significant forecast regarding the future of software development, asserting that artificial intelligence (AI) is on the cusp of replacing most human programmers within the next one to two years. Speaking at the AI + Biotechnology Summit in Washington, D.C., Schmidt underscored the rapid advancements in AI capabilities, contending that the technology's transformative potential remains "underhyped" despite its growing prominence.
Schmidt articulated his conviction, stating: > "We're just about to the point where we can replace most programming tasks by computers. It's likely that you're gonna see world class programmers that are gonna appear within the next one or two years." He further clarified that he believes "the vast majority of programmers will be replaced by AI programmers" within a single year. This acceleration is driven by developments like "text-to-action" capabilities, where AI can generate software from simple commands.
This bold prediction is not isolated, echoing sentiments from other leading figures in the technology sector. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has projected that AI could write 90% of code in as little as six months, while Microsoft CTO Kevin Scott anticipates AI handling 95% of programming within five years. These collective insights highlight a growing consensus within the industry about the imminent and profound shifts in the software engineering landscape.
The former Google chief also touched upon the concept of "recursive self-improvement," where AI systems independently enhance their own code, a process he expects to be significant by 2027. Schmidt warned that as AI gains independence, it could operate beyond human control, signaling major societal changes. He envisions AI models evolving to perform highly specialized tasks currently exclusive to humans, potentially leading to artificial superintelligence by 2031, operating autonomously and surpassing human capabilities across various fields.