European Birth Rates Decline to Record Low of 1.38, While Immigrant Births Increase

Brussels, Belgium – Europe's total fertility rate has fallen to a historic low of 1.38 live births per woman in 2023, significantly below the 2.1 replacement level required to maintain population size without migration, according to recent Eurostat data. This demographic shift coincides with ongoing discussions regarding the impact of immigration on the continent's future, a topic recently highlighted in a tweet by Ian Miles Cheong, quoting Middle Eastern clerics.

The tweet featured clips from the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), showcasing Egyptian cleric Ali Abu Al-Hasan and Sheikh Muhammad Ayed. Abu Al-Hasan is quoted as stating, "With the [Muslim] emigration [to Europe], and the unwillingness to get married and have children [among the Europeans]… After a while, Europe will become a single Islamic state, which will know nothing but ‘There is no god but Allah, and Muhammad is His Messenger.’ This will happen whether they like it or not. This is the decree of Allah. Islam is coming!"

Sheikh Muhammad Ayed, in a separate address at the Al-Aqsa Mosque translated by MEMRI, echoed similar sentiments, asserting that "Europe has become old and decrepit, and needs human reinforcement. No force is more powerful than the human force of us Muslims." He added, "We will give them fertility! We will breed children with them, because we shall conquer their countries – whether you like it or not, oh Germans, oh Americans, oh French, oh Italians, and all those like you."

Objective data from Eurostat indicates that while overall birth rates are declining, the number of babies born to foreign mothers in the EU is increasing, constituting nearly a quarter (23%) of all newborns in 2023. In Luxembourg, births to foreign mothers significantly outnumbered those to native parents, with 67% versus 33%. Foreign-born populations generally have a younger age structure and higher fertility rates, contributing to mitigating Europe's overall demographic decline.

Analysis by the Pew Research Center in 2017 projected that Europe's Muslim population is expected to rise even in a "zero migration" scenario due to higher fertility rates and a younger demographic profile compared to other European populations. These projections suggest that the share of Muslims in Europe's population could increase from 4.9% in 2016 to 7.4% by 2050 without any further migration, and potentially higher under medium or high migration scenarios.

Sociological research, such as a 2025 study in "European Societies," suggests that information about increasing Muslim populations can heighten perceptions of "demographic threat" among majority groups, leading to a modest "boundary contraction" in how they perceive individuals with Middle Eastern or North African backgrounds. While MEMRI provides translations of regional media, it has also faced criticism regarding its framing and selection of content.

The demographic shifts underscore a complex interplay of declining native birth rates, continued immigration, and evolving societal perceptions across Europe. Policymakers face the challenge of addressing labor shortages and an aging population while navigating diverse integration dynamics and public concerns.