European Strategic Autonomy Deemed an 'Illusion,' Deeper US Ties Advocated by Geopolitical Strategist

Geopolitical strategist Velina Tchakarova has asserted that the concept of European strategic autonomy is an "illusion," contending that the continent's political landscape currently renders such efforts unenforceable. Tchakarova argues that Europe's only viable path forward is to forge a closer relationship with the United States, a stance highlighted in a recent tweet by Ralph Hälbig. This perspective underscores a significant debate within European policy circles regarding self-reliance versus transatlantic alignment.

According to Tchakarova, Europe remains deeply dependent on the U.S. across critical sectors including energy, technology, markets, and security, including its nuclear umbrella. She suggests that achieving genuine strategic independence would necessitate profound and politically challenging reforms, such as substantially reducing social welfare provisions, increasing pension ages, and significantly boosting defense spending to at least 5% of GDP. Such measures would also require a reevaluation of the continent's green agenda and a greater commitment to security.

Tchakarova, known for coining the term "DragonBear" to describe the strategic coordination between Russia and China, has consistently warned about a bifurcated global system. Her analysis frequently points to a "Cold War 2.0" scenario, where Europe risks becoming a battleground or a "geopolitical backyard" if it fails to adapt to shifting power dynamics. She has previously indicated that Europe's pursuit of strategic autonomy became untenable following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The geopolitical strategist foresees a potential division within Europe, with some nations aligning more closely with Washington for security guarantees, particularly those in Central and Eastern Europe. This contrasts with a "continental bloc" that might continue to adhere to what she describes as Brussels' "strategic inertia" under the guise of autonomy. Tchakarova's views emphasize the urgent need for Europe to make a systemic decision about its geopolitical and geoeconomic orientation to secure its future role in a fragmented world.