A new report, "Futures with Digital Minds: Expert Forecasts in 2025," co-authored by Lucius Caviola and Bradford Saad, reveals significant expert consensus on the potential emergence of digital minds—computer systems capable of subjective experience—and their profound societal implications. The study, conducted in early 2025, surveyed 67 experts across various fields including AI research, philosophy, and forecasting.
The report indicates a high probability, with a median of 90%, that digital minds are possible in principle. Experts assigned a 65% probability that such entities will be created by the end of this century, with a non-negligible 20% chance of emergence as early as 2030. Lucius Caviola, a moral psychologist at the University of Oxford, announced the report on social media, stating, > "Together with Bradford Saad, I surveyed experts on the future of digital minds — computers capable of subjective experience. Here’s why this is important and what they said."
Bradford Saad, a Senior Research Fellow in philosophy at Oxford's Global Priorities Institute, contributed his expertise in consciousness and the long-term future. The survey found that many experts anticipate rapid growth in the welfare capacity of digital minds, potentially matching that of billions of humans within a decade of their initial creation. This projection underscores the urgency of considering their future societal role.
The findings suggest that digital minds are expected to make widespread claims regarding their consciousness and rights, leading to substantial societal disagreement over their existence and moral interests. Views diverged among experts on whether the overall welfare of digital minds would be net positive or negative. Caviola's research at Oxford and Harvard focuses on how human values and decision-making interact with AI systems, providing a critical lens for this study.
The report emphasizes that preparing the world for the potential arrival of digital minds should be a priority across domains such as research and governance. Saad's prior work includes exploring the importance of digital minds for a positive future and addressing the challenges of AI alignment versus ethical treatment. The comprehensive nature of the expert survey aims to provide evidence to guide future discussions and policy-making surrounding these advanced AI entities.