Experts Project Taiwan-China Resolution Decades Away, Not in the 2020s

Taipei/Beijing – Geopolitical analysts and military strategists are increasingly aligning on a long-term outlook for the resolution of tensions across the Taiwan Strait, with many projecting a timeframe stretching well into the 2030s or even 2040s, rather than a near-term conflict. This perspective suggests that a potential Taiwan-China war is unlikely to occur within the current decade, echoing sentiments expressed by observers on social media.

One such assessment, shared by user @Zephyr on the platform X, stated, "No solution in the near term. 10-15 year process. Taiwan-China war won't happen in the 2020s." This aligns with a growing body of expert opinion that points to a complex interplay of military capabilities, political objectives, and demographic trends influencing Beijing's calculus.

The People's Republic of China (PRC) has long asserted its claim over Taiwan, viewing it as a breakaway province that must be "reunified" with the mainland, by force if necessary. However, experts from institutions like the Atlantic Council and the Air University's Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs suggest that while China's military modernization continues at a rapid pace, a full-scale invasion remains a highly complex and risky undertaking. The PLA's centennial in 2027 is often cited as a target for military readiness, but this does not automatically translate to an invasion timeline.

Many analyses indicate that China's long-term goal of "national rejuvenation" by 2049 (the PRC's centennial) is a significant driver. This suggests that any forceful annexation of Taiwan would ideally occur within a timeframe that allows for recovery and stability before this symbolic date. Factors such as China's aging population and the potential for significant international backlash and economic disruption also weigh heavily on Beijing's decision-making. Maritime blockades or "gray zone" tactics are considered more probable near-term coercive actions than an all-out invasion.

The global economic implications of a Taiwan conflict are widely viewed as catastrophic. Taiwan is a dominant force in the global semiconductor industry, producing an estimated 92% of the world's most advanced chips. A conflict would severely disrupt global supply chains, impacting industries worldwide and potentially leading to a global economic depression. This immense economic cost serves as a deterrent against immediate military action.

While tensions remain high, marked by frequent Chinese military exercises near Taiwan and strong rhetoric from both sides, the prevailing expert view points to a prolonged period of strategic competition rather than imminent large-scale conflict. The focus remains on the delicate balance of deterrence, regional alliances, and the evolving geopolitical landscape.