Fact Check: Governor Kristi Noem's Claim of 1.6 Million Unauthorized Immigrant Departures Rated False

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem asserted in a January 3, 2024, tweet that "In less than 200 days, 1.6 MILLION illegal immigrants have left the United States population." In the social media post, Noem further claimed this purported exodus would lead to "safer streets, taxpayer savings, pressure off of schools and hospital services and better job opportunities for Americans," concluding with a thank you to "@POTUS Trump!"

However, independent fact-checking organizations have rated Governor Noem's claim as false. PolitiFact, a non-partisan fact-checking website, determined that the 1.6 million figure likely stems from a misinterpretation of U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data concerning "unique encounters" at the border. These encounter statistics do not represent distinct individuals leaving the U.S. population, nor do they indicate a net decrease in the unauthorized immigrant population.

Contrary to the tweet's assertion, recent analyses from reputable research organizations indicate a growth in the unauthorized immigrant population in the United States. The Pew Research Center reported an estimated increase of 1.1 million people between 2019 and 2021, reaching 10.5 million. Similarly, the Center for Migration Studies found the U.S. unauthorized population grew by 2.5 million between 2019 and 2022, reaching 11.2 million, primarily due to new arrivals outpacing departures and removals.

The economic and social impacts of immigration, including its effects on public services like schools and hospitals, as well as job markets and public safety, are complex subjects with varied research findings. While discussions on these impacts are ongoing, the foundational premise of a 1.6 million reduction in the unauthorized immigrant population, as stated by Governor Noem, lacks factual basis according to available data.

The discrepancy highlights the importance of distinguishing between border enforcement statistics and actual changes in the resident unauthorized immigrant population. Official data from government agencies and non-partisan research centers provide a different picture of recent demographic trends than that presented in the social media post.