The concept of the "dollar menu," once a staple of affordable fast food, has largely evolved into higher-priced "value menus," with some items now costing around four times their original price. This shift comes as the United States grapples with a period of notable monetary expansion and persistent inflation, prompting public discussion on the purchasing power of the dollar. A recent tweet from user "doomer" succinctly captured this sentiment, stating, "its just a coincidence that we quadrupled the amount of dollars that exist and now the dollar menu costs $4."
The tweet highlights a perceived correlation between the growth of the money supply and rising consumer prices. Indeed, the U.S. M2 money supply, a broad measure of money in circulation, experienced substantial growth, particularly from February 2020 to May 2025, increasing from approximately $15.3 trillion to a record $21.94 trillion. While this represents a significant expansion, it is not a quadrupling of the total money supply.
Concurrent with this monetary expansion, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown consistent increases. For instance, the annual inflation rate for the United States stood at 2.7% for the 12 months ending June 2025. Specifically, the food-away-from-home CPI, which includes restaurant and fast-food purchases, increased by 3.8% from June 2024 to June 2025, reflecting rising operational costs for eateries.
Fast-food chains have phased out the traditional $1 dollar menu over the past decade due to rising supply costs and slim profit margins. Items like McDonald's McChicken, once a $1 offering, now often retail for around $3, representing a nearly 200% increase since 2014. Similarly, the 99-cent Whopper Jr. has seen its price more than quadruple in some locations. This trend has led to an average menu price increase of 60% across twelve top fast-food chains between 2014 and 2024, with some chains like McDonald's seeing prices double, outpacing the general inflation rate.
The shift reflects a new economic reality where the affordability once synonymous with fast food is being re-evaluated by consumers. While the relationship between money supply and inflation is complex and subject to various factors, the observable price increases in everyday items like fast food menu offerings resonate with public perception regarding the changing value of money.