Finnish President Stubb: Russia's Ukraine War Yields 0.25% Land Gain at 167 Soldiers Per Kilometer Cost

Finnish President Alexander Stubb recently characterized Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine as the "biggest tactical and strategic mistake in modern history." Speaking from his official summer residence in Naantali, Finland, in an interview with The Sydney Morning Herald on July 12, 2025, Stubb delivered a sharp assessment of the conflict's geopolitical repercussions and Russia's military performance. He further expressed strong doubt that Russia would risk testing NATO's collective defense clause, Article 5, in practice.

Stubb elaborated that Moscow's initial objectives, including neutralizing Ukraine, weakening NATO, undermining transatlantic partnerships, and fracturing the European Union, have demonstrably backfired. Instead, Ukraine is now firmly progressing towards EU and eventual NATO membership, while Finland's accession has effectively doubled NATO's shared border with Russia. Western nations are also increasing defense spending, with NATO members committing to a 5% GDP target over ten years, and the EU appears more united than ever.

Highlighting the heavy toll on Russian forces, President Stubb pointed out the disproportionate cost of Russia's slow territorial gains. He stated, "Look, this year, he has advanced 0.25 per cent of the Ukrainian land mass at a cost of 167 soldiers dead per kilometre. It’s a pretty damn high price to pay," underscoring the significant human sacrifice for minimal progress.

Regarding the broader security landscape, Stubb reiterated his belief that Russia is unwilling to test Article 5, NATO's cornerstone of collective defense. He projected that Russia would not revert to a peaceful liberal democracy within the next five to ten years, anticipating a continued military buildup. Finland, having ended decades of non-alignment to join NATO following the 2022 invasion, has reinforced its own defenses by withdrawing from the Ottawa Convention on landmines and constructing a 200-kilometer security fence along its border.

President Stubb has also emerged as a notable voice in international diplomacy, particularly concerning Russia. His discussions with former U.S. President Donald Trump are reported to have influenced a hardening of Trump's stance on Russia, with Stubb acknowledging his role as a "conversational partner" in conveying Europe's perspective on the conflict.