Global Fertility Plunge: 155 Nations Below Replacement Rate by 2025

Taipei, Taiwan – A significant demographic shift is underway globally, with projections indicating that 155 out of 204 countries and territories will experience fertility rates below the population replacement level by 2025. This accelerating decline poses profound long-term challenges for societies and economies worldwide. The replacement level, necessary to sustain a population without migration, is approximately 2.1 births per woman.

Countries such as Taiwan, with an estimated fertility rate of 1.11 children per woman in 2024, consistently rank among the lowest globally, alongside South Korea and Hong Kong. This trend is not isolated, as the average global fertility rate has fallen from 5 births per woman in 1950 to 2.3 in 2021, with further declines anticipated.

The causes of this widespread decline in developed nations are multifaceted. Key factors include increased access to education and career opportunities for women, leading to delayed childbearing, and rising costs associated with raising children, including housing and education. Lifestyle choices and urbanization also play a significant role, contributing to couples delaying or opting out of parenthood.

The societal and economic consequences of sustained low fertility are considerable. An aging population and a shrinking workforce can strain social security systems, healthcare services, and overall economic growth. While some argue that lower populations could alleviate pressure on resources and the environment, the rapid demographic shift presents immediate challenges for labor markets and intergenerational support.

Governments in affected nations have attempted to counteract these trends with various pronatalist policies, such as paid parental leave, tax incentives, and childcare subsidies. However, research suggests that the success of these initiatives has been mixed, with their impact often limited by deeply ingrained social norms and economic realities.

Amidst these demographic discussions, a sentiment shared by some, as expressed by social media user Tenobrus in a recent tweet, suggests a radical perspective: > "actually if ur country is under threat not from external forces but because it's such a terrible place to live and love it's literally dead last global fertility rates, u should let that shit fucking collapse rather than committing further atrocities to sustain it." This view highlights a frustration with perceived internal societal failings contributing to the demographic crisis. The broader implications of such profound demographic shifts continue to be a central focus for policymakers and social scientists.