Gold's Recent Surge Signals Potential Equities and Crypto Rally, According to Framework Ventures Co-founder

Vance Spencer, co-founder of prominent crypto venture capital firm Framework Ventures, recently highlighted a recurring "mini cycle" in financial markets, suggesting that gold's current upward movement could precede rallies in traditional stocks and cryptocurrencies. In a tweet, Spencer stated, "> The following mini cycle has been repeating since 2020: Gold moves -> stonks move -> coins move." This observation points to a specific sequential pattern in asset class performance over the past five years.

Spencer, known for his early and significant investments in decentralized finance (DeFi) through Framework Ventures, implies that the current strength in gold prices may be a leading indicator for broader market gains. His firm has a strong track record in the Web3 and blockchain sectors, lending weight to his market insights.

Analysis of market trends since 2020 reveals varied correlations between these asset classes. During the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 experienced significant downturns, showing a temporary correlation, while gold also reacted to the economic uncertainty. However, gold has historically been considered a safe-haven asset, often exhibiting a weak negative correlation with the S&P 500, meaning its price tends to rise when stock markets decline.

More recently, gold has shown robust performance, reaching new all-time highs around $3,650 per ounce by September 2025, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical risks. This surge aligns with Spencer's tweet, indicating that the "Gold moves" phase is currently underway. Conversely, Bitcoin and stock markets have shown more intertwined movements, with Bitcoin often exhibiting a high correlation with stock market returns since 2015. For instance, in early April 2025, Bitcoin dipped alongside a drop in the stock market, while gold remained relatively stable.

While academic studies have explored the dynamic correlations between gold, stocks, and cryptocurrencies, particularly during and after the pandemic, the specific sequential "Gold moves -> stonks move -> coins move" pattern articulated by Spencer represents a market observation rather than a widely established economic theory. Nevertheless, the historical data since 2020 suggests periods where gold's performance has diverged or led other asset classes, followed by subsequent movements in equities and digital assets. Investors will be watching closely to see if this "mini cycle" continues to unfold as Spencer predicts.