Good Judgment Project's Commercial Evolution Sparks Reflection on Original Vision

A recent social media post from user CuiBono has drawn attention to the evolution of Philip Tetlock’s renowned Good Judgment Project (GJP), suggesting a sense of lament for its original trajectory. The tweet, which stated, "> Somewhere, the creator of Phil Tetlock’s Good Judgment Project website weeps for what could have been," hints at a perceived divergence from the project's initial academic and public-facing goals following its commercial spin-off.

The Good Judgment Project originated in 2011 as a research initiative co-created by Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania. Funded by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), its primary objective was to enhance geopolitical forecasting by "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd." The project gained significant recognition for its success in IARPA's forecasting tournaments, outperforming other teams by a substantial margin and identifying "superforecasters."

In July 2015, the project saw a commercial transition with the launch of Good Judgment Inc. This entity aimed to extend the crowd wisdom methodology to commercial activities, offering forecasts on general interest questions, custom forecasts, and training in forecasting techniques. Good Judgment Inc. subsequently launched the Good Judgment Open site in September 2015, continuing public forecasting tournaments on various geopolitical, financial, and even entertainment events.

The sentiment expressed in the tweet likely refers to the shift from a government-funded academic research project, which provided a platform for volunteer forecasters, to a commercial enterprise. While Good Judgment Inc. maintains a public-facing platform, the commercialization could be seen by some as a departure from the collaborative, open-source spirit of its IARPA-backed origins. The original GJP website, which facilitated the groundbreaking research, concluded its operations in 2015, with its legacy continuing through the commercial venture.