WASHINGTON D.C. – Hal Brands, a prominent columnist for Bloomberg Opinion and the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, recently articulated a stark warning regarding the future of America's global leadership. Brands posits that a confluence of factors—specifically a military catastrophe, soaring federal debt, and the unpredictability of a potential Trump presidency—could collectively dismantle the existing international order, thereby empowering rivals like China and Russia.
Brands, in a Bloomberg Opinion piece published on July 28, 2025, asserts that "A military catastrophe, soaring federal debt and Trump’s unpredictability could give China and Russia what they crave." This perspective underscores a growing concern among foreign policy analysts about the fragility of the U.S.-led liberal order. He highlights that no international system is permanent, drawing parallels to historical empires whose dominance eventually waned.
The first pathway, a military catastrophe, suggests a significant setback or overextension of U.S. military power that could diminish its global standing and capacity to project influence. While the article does not specify a scenario, Brands frequently discusses the escalating great-power competition with China and Russia, implying potential flashpoints in regions like the Indo-Pacific or Eastern Europe. Such an event could severely impact U.S. credibility and its network of alliances.
Secondly, soaring federal debt is presented as a critical internal vulnerability. Brands has consistently argued that fiscal instability can erode a nation's capacity for global leadership, diverting resources from defense and diplomatic initiatives and undermining economic strength. An unsustainable debt trajectory could limit Washington’s ability to invest in strategic priorities or respond effectively to crises, thereby weakening its international leverage.
Finally, the unpredictability associated with a potential second Trump presidency is cited as a major destabilizing force. Brands has previously written on how former President Trump's "America First" approach and transactional foreign policy challenged traditional alliances and international norms. This unpredictability could create vacuums or opportunities that China and Russia might exploit to advance their own geopolitical agendas, potentially leading to a more fragmented and multipolar world order.