Scientist and popular educator Hank Green has drawn attention to the potential for severe climatic shifts in Ireland, specifically highlighting the country's vulnerability should the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weaken or collapse. According to a tweet by Alex Steffen, Green's reporting delves into "how absolutely borked Ireland could be if/when the AMOC goes down." This climate foresight underscores concerns about the critical ocean current's role in maintaining Ireland's temperate climate.
The AMOC is a vast system of ocean currents that transports warm, shallow water north from the tropics and returns colder, deeper water south. This circulation is instrumental in distributing heat around the Earth, providing Northern Europe, including Ireland, with a significantly milder climate than other regions at similar latitudes. Its disruption could lead to dramatic changes in regional weather patterns.
Green has warned that a shutdown of the AMOC could plunge Ireland into "Siberia-like conditions," a scenario he likens to the film "The Day After Tomorrow," albeit unfolding over years rather than days. While some scientific models predict a slowdown of the AMOC by 34% to 45% by the end of the century, potentially reducing global warming trends around Ireland without causing cooling, other research indicates a more severe outcome. A 2023 study suggested a 95% confidence range for the AMOC's collapse between 2025 and 2095, signaling a significant tipping point.
The weakening of the AMOC is primarily attributed to climate change, particularly the influx of freshwater from melting Greenland glaciers and Arctic ice sheets. This freshwater reduces the salinity and density of the northern waters, hindering their sinking and disrupting the circulation. While some recent studies suggest the AMOC might be more resilient than previously thought, the consensus points to a continued weakening.
Irish meteorological services and research institutions are actively studying the AMOC's implications. Met Éireann, in collaboration with universities, is conducting research and advocating for increased investment to better understand these complex ocean systems. Experts emphasize the need for continued monitoring and advanced modeling to refine predictions and prepare for potential climate transformations in Ireland.