Hypothetical 2029 Scenario Envisions Sweeping IEEPA Tariffs on Fossil Fuels and Firearms

A recent tweet by historian Phil Magness outlines a speculative future in 2029 where a U.S. President, potentially Gavin Newsom or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, declares national emergencies under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This hypothetical declaration would reportedly impose prohibitive tariffs on all fossil fuels, gas-powered cars, guns, gun parts, and ammunition, reflecting a significant expansion of executive authority. The tweet serves as a commentary on potential policy directions and the use of emergency powers.

The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), enacted in 1977, grants the President authority to regulate international commerce in response to an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to U.S. national security, foreign policy, or economy, typically originating from outside the United States. While historically employed for foreign policy tools like freezing assets of hostile regimes, its application has seen broader interpretations, sparking debate over its potential use for domestic policy objectives. Phil Magness, a Senior Research Fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research, has been a vocal critic of what he terms the "weaponization" of IEEPA for issues beyond its original scope.

The individuals named in the hypothetical scenario, California Governor Gavin Newsom and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, are prominent figures known for their progressive stances. Governor Newsom has consistently advocated for aggressive climate change policies and stricter gun control legislation within California. Similarly, Representative Ocasio-Cortez is a key proponent of the Green New Deal, which calls for a rapid transition to renewable energy, and has actively championed comprehensive gun reform measures, including universal background checks and bans on certain types of firearms.

Magness’s tweet, which concludes with the direct question, "> Is this what you want?", frames the hypothetical use of IEEPA as a potential outcome of specific political agendas. It highlights concerns among some observers regarding the scope of presidential emergency powers and their potential impact on economic sectors and individual liberties. The scenario, though fictional, underscores ongoing public and political discourse about the balance between executive authority and legislative process in addressing national challenges.