Israel continues to exhibit a unique demographic trajectory, maintaining a total fertility rate (TFR) significantly higher than most developed nations. This trend stands in contrast to projections by some observers, such as Samo Burja, who recently tweeted, > "In the long term it seems Israel will not remain an exception when it comes to replacement fertility. Low fertility and then mass immigration seem to be in its political future." This statement suggests a future shift towards lower birth rates and an increased reliance on immigration for population growth.
Current data indicates Israel's TFR was 2.89 children per woman in 2022, making it the highest among OECD countries, where the average TFR is around 1.5. This exceptional rate is largely driven by the Jewish population, particularly the Ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) community, which recorded a TFR of 6.1 in 2022. In the first five months of 2024, the fertility rate among Jewish women further climbed to 3.19 children per woman, confirming their status as the group with the highest fertility in the country.
While Jewish fertility rates remain robust, the TFR among Muslim women in Israel has seen a notable decline over the past two decades, dropping from 4.55 to 2.87 in 2022. This convergence contributes to the overall slight decrease in Israel's TFR from its peak of 3.10 between 2015 and 2018 to 2.84 in 2023. Despite this, the country's overall fertility remains well above the replacement level of 2.1, a rate many developed nations struggle to achieve.
Immigration, known as Aliyah, has historically been a cornerstone of Israel's population growth and national identity, enshrined in its Law of Return. Over 3 million Jews have immigrated to Israel since its establishment in 1948, with the state actively encouraging and assisting this process. However, recent figures from January to August 2024 showed a 42% decrease in new immigrants compared to the same period in 2023, despite a reported increase in Aliyah requests following global antisemitic incidents.
The interplay between high, albeit slightly fluctuating, fertility rates and shifting immigration patterns defines Israel's complex demographic landscape. While some predict a future of lower fertility and greater reliance on immigration, current trends highlight Israel's continued exceptionalism in birth rates. The long-term balance between natural growth and immigration will remain a critical factor in shaping the nation's demographic future.