Kalshi Betting Data Shows Cuomo Ahead in NYC Mayoral Race Amid Tightening Contest

New York City – As New Yorkers head to the polls on Election Day, internal data from the prediction market platform Kalshi indicates that former Governor Andrew Cuomo holds a lead over State Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani in bets placed for the mayoral race. This development, shared by Eyal Yakoby on social media, suggests a perception among bettors that Cuomo will emerge victorious, diverging from many traditional public opinion polls. The tweet stated: "> BREAKING: Internal Kalshi data reveals that Cuomo actually holds a lead over Zohran in bets placed in NYC. New Yorkers believe Cuomo will win."

Kalshi, a federally licensed prediction market in the United States, allows individuals to wager on future events, including political outcomes. Proponents of prediction markets argue they can often be more accurate than traditional polls because participants put money on the line, reflecting conviction rather than mere preference. Kalshi notably demonstrated its predictive power by accurately forecasting the outcome of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, often contradicting conventional polling data.

The New York City mayoral contest features Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani against independent candidate Andrew Cuomo, who lost to Mamdani in the Democratic primary but continued his campaign. While many recent polls have shown Mamdani maintaining a lead, some surveys indicated a narrowing gap in the final weeks. For instance, a recent AtlasIntel survey placed Mamdani's lead at 6.6 points, while a Suffolk University poll showed a 10-point lead for Mamdani.

The race has been marked by sharp exchanges, with former President Donald Trump endorsing Cuomo and criticizing Mamdani. Trump urged New Yorkers to vote for Cuomo, calling Mamdani a "communist" and threatening to cut federal funding to the city if Mamdani won. Mamdani, a democratic socialist, has rejected these labels and accused Cuomo of aligning with the "MAGA movement." The contrasting views on the candidates and the city's future have intensified the election's final hours.