Lancet Study Reports USAID Programs Saved 91 Million Lives Amidst Agency's Dissolution

A recent study published in the medical journal The Lancet estimates that programs supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) prevented over 91 million deaths in low- and middle-income countries between 2001 and 2021. This finding emerges as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Trump administration have moved to dismantle USAID, asserting the agency "has little to show since the end of the Cold War."

The Lancet study, conducted by researchers from institutions including the Barcelona Institute for Global Health and UCLA, analyzed data from 133 countries, concluding that higher levels of USAID funding were associated with a 15% reduction in all-cause mortality and a 32% reduction in deaths among children under five. This translates to 91,839,663 all-age deaths averted, including over 30 million children under five. The most significant impacts were observed in reducing mortality from HIV/AIDS (65% reduction), malaria (51%), and neglected tropical diseases (50%).

Secretary Rubio, who assumed leadership of USAID in February, has been a vocal critic of the agency's effectiveness. Two weeks prior to the Lancet study's publication, Rubio stated that USAID "has little to show since the end of the Cold War," a sentiment echoed in the administration's decision to officially cease USAID's implementation of foreign assistance as of July 1. He argued that USAID had created a "globe-spanning NGO industrial complex at taxpayer expense" and that its "charity-based model failed."

The administration's actions have led to the cancellation of 83% of USAID's programs, with the remaining 18% to be administered by the State Department. This dismantling follows an executive order issued by President Donald Trump on January 20, directing a freeze on foreign assistance funding and a review of all U.S. aid work abroad. The move has been supported by the Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk, who described USAID as a "criminal organization."

However, the Lancet study projects dire consequences if the funding cuts continue, estimating that more than 14 million additional deaths, including over 4.5 million children under five, could occur by 2030. James Macinko, a co-author of the study, highlighted the efficiency of USAID's work, stating, "For that small amount [18 cents per day per taxpayer], we've been able to translate that into saving up to 90 million deaths around the world." Aid groups and former officials, including former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, have condemned the cuts, warning of devastating impacts on vulnerable populations.