Male Labor Force Participation Declines by 2.7 Percentage Points Per Decade, AI and Automation Expected to Accelerate Trend

The labor force participation rate for prime-age men (ages 25-54) has steadily decreased by an average of 2.7 percentage points per decade since 1990, a significant and ongoing "secular trend" that is now projected to accelerate with advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics. This decline is attributed to a confluence of factors, including men being "left behind" by economic shifts, increased rates of disability and addiction, and voluntary withdrawal from the workforce.

David Shapiro, a prominent voice on social media, highlighted the gravity of the situation in a recent tweet, stating, > "When I came across this trend in my research I had to double check. Triple check. The causes are many: Some men are getting left behind. Others are disabled or addicted. A few leave voluntarily. By and large, this is a secular trend. Automation is a strong contributing factor. People are checking out and never coming back. That's only going to accelerate with AI and robotics."

Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco indicates that the generational gap in labor force participation between millennial males and their Baby Boomer counterparts is partly explained by higher rates of postsecondary education attainment, self-reported disabilities or illnesses, and caretaking responsibilities. The changing industry structure and falling demand for jobs traditionally held by men, particularly in manufacturing, also play a crucial role. Disability, in particular, is cited as the largest factor in non-participation for prime-age men.

The impact of automation and AI is already evident and is set to intensify. Projections suggest that AI could replace the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs globally, with approximately 25% of all jobs potentially being performed entirely by AI. By the mid-2030s, PwC estimates that up to 30% of jobs could be automatable, with men potentially more affected in the long run due to their higher representation in manual tasks susceptible to autonomous vehicles and other machine replacements.

Jobs in sectors such as customer service, accounting, and warehouse operations, which often involve repetitive tasks, are particularly vulnerable to AI-driven automation. While AI is also expected to create new job categories, a significant number of workers express concern about job displacement and the necessity for retraining to adapt to an evolving labor market. This technological shift underscores the urgency for workforce development initiatives to address the growing divide.