Mamdani Moment Highlights 41.2% Underemployment Among Graduates, Illustrating Turchin's Elite Overproduction Theory

A recent social media post by Peter Turchin, a prominent complexity scientist and author, has drawn attention to what he terms "The Mamdani Moment" as a contemporary illustration of his cliodynamics theory. Turchin, known for his work on historical cycles of political instability, specifically noted that this development serves as a "perfect illustration for Chapter 4 of End Times!"—referencing his book which explores the role of elites and counter-elites in societal disintegration. The tweet by Peter Turchin, shared on July 12, 2025, underscores a growing concern regarding the economic prospects of the college-educated demographic.

Turchin's theory posits that societal instability is often driven by two key factors: "popular immiseration" and "elite overproduction." Elite overproduction occurs when a society produces more educated and ambitious individuals than there are elite positions or high-status jobs available, leading to widespread frustration among those "priced-out professionals." This surplus of unfulfilled elite aspirants can then form "counter-elites" who challenge the established order, channeling broader popular discontent.

The "Mamdani Moment," centered around political figure Zohran Mamdani, is presented as a stark example of this phenomenon. Mamdani's emergence is seen as a sign that "elite overproduction" in an age of automation is fueling a political uprising. This movement is reportedly "led not by the poor, but by the priced-out professionals," particularly young and college-educated voters. Data indicates that the unemployment rate for recent college graduates (aged 22–27) is nearly 6 percent, surpassing the national average of 4.2 percent. Furthermore, underemployment among all graduates reached 41.2 percent in March, highlighting a significant disconnect between educational attainment and suitable employment.

This economic frustration among the credentialed class is contributing to a shift in political dynamics. While some analyses suggest that poorer voters may not align with such movements, middle- and higher-income residents, particularly those with college degrees, are increasingly supporting figures like Mamdani. These counter-elites, often themselves educated but disillusioned, act as political entrepreneurs, leveraging the discontent of those whose aspirations are unmet by the current system.

The "Mamdani Moment" thus serves as a compelling real-world case study for Turchin's cliodynamics, suggesting that the structural pressures of elite overproduction and the resulting frustration among a significant segment of the educated populace are potent drivers of political change and potential instability in modern societies. The ongoing developments will likely continue to be analyzed through the lens of these historical patterns.