Manhattan Institute Poll Shows Stefanik Leading Hochul by 1 Point in Potential 2026 New York Gubernatorial Race

A recent poll conducted by the Manhattan Institute indicates that Republican Representative Elise Stefanik holds a narrow lead over Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul in a hypothetical 2026 New York gubernatorial contest. The findings, highlighted by a Newsweek headline, suggest a Republican could potentially flip the New York governorship for the first time in two decades. Representative Stefanik, commenting on the Newsweek report, stated in a tweet, "> "Republican Could Flip New York for First Time in Two Decades" Together New Yorkers will Save our State."

The Manhattan Institute poll, a conservative think tank, surveyed 600 New York City voters and 300 New York State voters between October 22 and October 26, 2025, showing Stefanik with 43 percent support compared to Hochul's 42 percent, a difference within the poll's ±3.3 percentage point margin of error. Additionally, Stefanik led Lieutenant Governor Anthony Delgado by six points, 43 percent to 37 percent. This marks a significant development, as Governor George Pataki, who served from 1995 to 2006, was the last Republican to hold the state's top office.

However, other polls present a different picture, with a Siena College survey from September 2025 showing Governor Hochul leading by 25 points, 52 percent to 27 percent. Political science professor Shawn Donahue from the University of Buffalo advised taking the Manhattan Institute poll "with a grain of salt" due to its non-independent nature. Despite New York's strong Democratic enrollment advantage, recent elections, including Donald Trump's closer-than-expected performance in 2024, suggest a potentially competitive gubernatorial race in 2026.

Campaign spokespersons have reacted sharply to the polling data. Bernadette Breslin, a spokesperson for Stefanik, stated that this is "> the first time in decades that any potential Republican gubernatorial candidate (and in this case, the likely nominee) is polling ahead of a Democrat incumbent Governor, even before any official announcement." Conversely, Sarafina Chitika, a spokesperson for Hochul, dismissed the poll as not reflecting reality. Steven Ileka, press secretary for Delgado, suggested the poll indicates voters' rejection of Governor Hochul.

The 2026 gubernatorial election is anticipated to be highly competitive, following closer-than-expected statewide Democratic margins in both 2022 and 2024. While forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball still classify the race as "Likely Democratic," the recent poll has increased energy among Republicans. Representative Stefanik has not yet formally announced her candidacy, with reports indicating she plans to make her intentions known after the November elections.