Manhattan Institute Report Finds Rehabilitation for Repeat Offenders "Often Fails"

A new report co-authored by Rafael A. Mangual of the Manhattan Institute asserts that efforts to rehabilitate repeat criminal offenders frequently fall short, challenging prevailing approaches in criminal justice. The tweet from Mangual, stating, "Today on We Need To Do Something About Repeat Offenders…," likely references this ongoing discussion and his research on the topic. The report, titled "Why 'Rehabilitating' Repeat Criminal Offenders Often Fails," was published in March 2025 and delves into the efficacy of current rehabilitation programs.

The comprehensive analysis by Mangual and his co-authors, John Paul Wright, Matt Logan, and Hannah Elka Meyers, highlights that high recidivism rates remain a historical norm, with limited success in altering serious criminal behavior. It scrutinizes the "what works" movement in rehabilitation, suggesting that meta-analyses often "downwardly define" success, making programs appear more effective than they are in practice. The report points to studies where initial positive results from rehabilitation programs have been reversed or diminished upon further, independent evaluation.

The Manhattan Institute's research also delves into policy recommendations, advocating for measures that prioritize public safety and acknowledge the challenges of behavior change among repeat offenders. These include calls for rigorous, independent randomized controlled trials for rehabilitation programs and the implementation of "truth in sentencing" laws to ensure convicted individuals serve a larger portion of their sentences. Mangual's work also proposes a modified "three strikes" policy designed to incapacitate prolific offenders while incorporating desistance credits.

Critics of current rehabilitation models, as presented in the report, argue that a significant portion of serious crime is driven by a small number of persistent offenders. The report emphasizes the need for better data collection and transparency in criminal justice systems to inform policy decisions accurately. This perspective suggests a shift towards policies that focus on incapacitation and deterrence for high-risk individuals, rather than solely on rehabilitation efforts that have shown limited impact.