Manhattan Institute Survey Reveals 54% of 'New Entrant' Republicans Justify Political Violence

A new comprehensive survey by the Manhattan Institute highlights significant internal divisions within the Republican Party, particularly concerning the cohesion of President Trump's coalition. Announced by Jesse Arm, a fellow at the Manhattan Institute, the study explored critical questions such as "What does it mean to be MAGA?" and "Can President Trump’s coalition remain cohesive once he exits the stage?" The research involved nearly 3,000 voters, including substantial oversamples of Black and Hispanic Republicans and 2024 Trump voters.

The study categorizes the current GOP electorate into two primary blocs: "Core Republicans," representing 65% of the coalition, and "New Entrant Republicans," comprising 29%. Core Republicans are identified as long-standing voters consistently conservative on economic, foreign policy, and social issues. In contrast, New Entrants are typically younger, more racially diverse, and exhibit markedly less conservative views across many policy domains.

A striking finding indicates that 54% of New Entrant Republicans believe political violence can sometimes be justified, a stark contrast to 80% of Core Republicans who reject the notion. This segment also shows higher rates of belief in conspiracy theories, with 34% endorsing most or all of the theories tested, compared to 11% of Core Republicans. Furthermore, one in three New Entrants (32%) reported openly expressing racist or antisemitic views, significantly higher than Core Republicans.

Policy stances also reveal deep rifts; New Entrant Republicans are more likely to hold progressive views on issues such as taxes, immigration, DEI initiatives, and transgender policies. They also exhibit more dovish attitudes towards China and are less consistently pro-Israel than their Core Republican counterparts. This ideological divergence suggests a broader, yet more internally contradictory, coalition than in previous years.

The survey raises questions about the long-term stability of the expanded Republican base, especially concerning its newest members. Only 56% of New Entrant Republicans indicated they would "definitely" vote Republican in the 2026 congressional elections, compared to 70% of Core Republicans. This suggests a less secure attachment to the party among this significant segment, posing a challenge for the GOP's future strategic direction.