BUENOS AIRES – Argentine President Javier Milei is preparing for the crucial October 2025 legislative midterm elections, a period that will significantly shape the future of his radical economic reforms. Despite facing considerable political headwinds and initial social costs, his administration has achieved notable milestones, including a substantial reduction in monthly inflation. This progress comes as some observers note pragmatic shifts in his approach, leading to questions about a "reversed course" from his initial hardline stance.
Since taking office in December 2023, President Milei has pursued an aggressive agenda of austerity and deregulation aimed at combating hyperinflation. Monthly inflation, which peaked significantly before and early in his term, has seen a dramatic decrease, reaching as low as 1.5% by June 2025, a stark contrast to the 211% annual rate at the end of 2023. This rapid disinflation is a central pillar of his economic strategy, which he has consistently described as "painful but necessary."
However, the implementation of these policies has not been without challenges. Early in his presidency, Milei encountered strong opposition in Congress, leading to roadblocks for his sweeping "omnibus bill" and emergency decrees. This political reality has necessitated a more collaborative approach, including negotiations with provincial governors, which some interpret as a tempering of his initial uncompromising stance. The tweet from Rishi🥥🗽🌐🔰🏙, stating, > "Milei will make it through the midterms but idk why he has reversed course in the recent months," highlights this perception of strategic adaptation.
Economically, while inflation has fallen, the initial phase of Milei's reforms led to a recession and a significant increase in poverty, peaking at 53% in the first half of 2024. However, recent data indicates a subsequent sharp decline in poverty to 38% by the second half of 2024, alongside a budget surplus—the first in 14 years. These mixed economic outcomes underscore the complex impact of his "chainsaw economics" approach.
The upcoming 2025 midterm elections are vital for Milei, as his party, La Libertad Avanza, currently lacks a majority in Congress. Strengthening his legislative position is crucial for advancing his reform agenda, including delayed plans like dollarization, which he aims to pursue after the elections. His approval ratings have remained around 50%, reflecting continued public support despite the economic contraction and social adjustments, positioning him to navigate the midterms.