Modest Majority Finds Policy Advice Complex, Robin Hanson Highlights Public's Nuanced Acceptance

A recent observation from economist Robin Hanson indicates a dual perception among the public regarding policy advice: while a "modest majority" finds such advice overly complex, there is an overarching sentiment that policy itself possesses "roughly the right amount of complexity." This nuanced view suggests a public grappling with the intricate nature of governance while simultaneously acknowledging its inherent difficulties. Hanson, an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University, often explores the underlying motivations behind human behavior and institutional structures. His work, including the book "The Elephant in the Brain," frequently points to a disconnect between stated reasons for actions and their actual, often hidden, drivers. This framework offers a lens through which to understand the public's seemingly contradictory stance on policy complexity. The perception of advice as "too complex" could stem from policies designed to address stated, rather than actual, societal needs. As Hanson has argued, if policies are crafted based on what people claim to want, rather than their deeper, often unconscious, motivations, the resulting advice may feel convoluted or misaligned. This can lead to a sense of frustration among the public trying to navigate official guidance. Furthermore, Hanson's research on "Statusful Regulation" suggests that many regulations and policy inclinations tend to reflect the preferences and behaviors of high-status individuals. Such policies, while potentially serving the interests of an elite, can appear unduly complex or inappropriate when applied universally, particularly to those in lower-status positions. This disparity could contribute to the "modest majority's" feeling of excessive complexity. Despite these criticisms of complexity, the public's overall acceptance that "policy has roughly the right amount of complexity" might reflect a resignation to the status quo or a recognition of the multifaceted challenges governments face. Hanson's work on prediction markets and information failures in government highlights how conventional policy-making often suffers from biased or incomplete information, leading to inherently complex and sometimes ineffective solutions. The public may intuitively grasp that simple answers are rarely sufficient for complex societal problems, even if the advice itself is hard to digest.