Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has provided a significant valuation for Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot, asserting its potential to revolutionize labor markets akin to how Amazon transformed retail with books. Jonas posited that a humanoid robot leased at $5 per hour could effectively perform the work of two humans earning $25 per hour each, estimating a net present value (NPV) of approximately $200,000 per robot. This analysis underscores a growing belief in the transformative economic impact of advanced robotics.
Tesla's Optimus, also known as Tesla Bot, is a general-purpose humanoid robot under active development, first announced at the company's AI Day in August 2021. Prototypes showcased in 2022 and 2023 demonstrated capabilities like object manipulation and navigation, with the Generation 2 Optimus unveiled in December 2023 featuring improved design and movements. Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, has consistently stated that Optimus has the potential to become more significant than the company's vehicle business over time, leveraging the same AI systems developed for Tesla's autonomous vehicles.
Jonas further elaborated on the immense market opportunity, projecting that a mere 1% substitution of total human labor in the United States by Optimus could be worth over $300 billion, translating to approximately $100 per Tesla share. He noted that while Optimus is not yet included in Tesla's current valuation models, the potential for humanoid robots is "becoming serious enough to move the stock." The analyst previously estimated that Tesla could save $2.5 billion by replacing just 10% of its workforce with Optimus robots.
The global humanoid robot market is poised for substantial growth, projected to expand from $1.8 billion in 2023 to $28.6 billion by 2030, driven by advancements in AI and increasing automation demand across various industries. While Tesla is a prominent player, the market includes numerous competitors such as Boston Dynamics, Figure AI, Agility Robotics, and SoftBank Robotics, all vying for leadership in diverse applications from manufacturing to personal assistance. Despite the ambitious projections, Optimus's development has faced challenges, including production delays and leadership changes, with Tesla's internal goal of 5,000 units by 2025 still in the "hundreds." Elon Musk, however, remains bullish, predicting potential demand for billions of units and a production cost below $20,000 at high volumes, reinforcing his vision for Optimus as a cornerstone of Tesla's future valuation.