mRNA COVID Vaccines Show 39.2% Effectiveness Against Hospitalization and 64.0% Against Death in 2024-2025

ST. LOUIS, MO – Despite a recognized decrease in overall effectiveness against infection, mRNA COVID-19 vaccines continue to provide significant protection against severe illness, hospitalization, and death in 2024, with vaccinated individuals consistently experiencing better health outcomes than their unvaccinated counterparts. Recent studies highlight the ongoing benefits of vaccination amidst evolving SARS-CoV-2 variants.

A comprehensive study published in the New England Journal of Medicine in October 2025, involving a large cohort of U.S. veterans, revealed that the 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine demonstrated 39.2% effectiveness against COVID-19-associated hospitalizations and 64.0% against COVID-19-associated deaths over a six-month follow-up period. This research, which compared individuals who received both COVID-19 and influenza vaccines to those who received only the influenza vaccine, aimed to minimize "healthy vaccinee" bias. While the absolute risk reductions were small, reflecting the decreased baseline severity of contemporary SARS-CoV-2 infection, the protection against severe outcomes remained evident across all age groups and health statuses.

Ian Copeland, PhD, a highly experienced immunologist and biotechnology executive, underscored these findings in a recent social media post. Copeland, who holds a PhD in Immunology from the University of California, San Diego, and serves as President, CEO, and Chairman of the Board at Advanced BioMedical Technologies, stated, "> Even with lower effectivness in 2024, those vaccinated with the the mRNA COVID vaccine still faired better than the unvaccinated." He further asserted, "> It's time to admit it antivaxers. 5 years later and you're still wrong!!!"

Earlier research, including a systematic review and meta-analysis published in November 2024, indicated that initial mRNA vaccine series and booster doses provided high effectiveness (84-86%) against hospitalization, though effectiveness showed a decline with the emergence of the Omicron variant. Similarly, a study on the 2023-2024 mRNA-1273 XBB.1.5 vaccine reported 56% effectiveness against hospitalization and 24% against medically attended COVID-19. These figures collectively reinforce the sustained, albeit varying, protective capacity of mRNA vaccines against the most serious consequences of COVID-19.

Health authorities continue to recommend updated vaccination to reduce the burden of COVID-19, emphasizing that even with viral evolution, vaccination remains a critical tool in public health strategy. The ongoing monitoring of vaccine performance against new variants is crucial for informing future vaccine development and public health guidance.