Nasry Asfura Holds Narrow Lead in Honduras Presidential Election, Polymarket Forecasts 67% Win Probability

Nasry “Tito” Asfura, the conservative National Party candidate, has taken a narrow lead in the ongoing Honduras presidential election, with prediction market Polymarket indicating a 67% chance of his victory. The election, held on Sunday, December 1, 2025, has been characterized by a highly polarized political climate and a tight race among leading contenders. Official vote counting has been slow, and the electoral authority's website has experienced outages, contributing to public frustration.

Early results show Asfura, former mayor of Tegucigalpa, slightly ahead of his main rival, Salvador Nasralla of the Liberal Party. Rixi Moncada of the ruling LIBRE Party trails in third place. The close contest has led to calls for patience from the National Electoral Council (CNE) as the tally continues, with both Asfura and Nasralla holding just under 40% of the vote in some counts.

The election has drawn international attention, with former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly endorsing Asfura. Trump stated on social media that he could work with Asfura to counter drug trafficking, adding, "if he doesn't win, the United States will not be throwing good money after bad." This endorsement also coincided with Trump's pledge to pardon former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez, a National Party member currently serving a U.S. drug trafficking sentence.

Accusations of potential voter fraud have further intensified tensions, with the Attorney General’s Office, aligned with the governing LIBRE party, alleging opposition plots. The National Party, in turn, has dismissed audio recordings suggesting influence over the election as artificial intelligence fabrications. These issues have fostered public distrust in the electoral process, which also saw delays in the provision of voting materials.

Honduras, a nation grappling with significant poverty, is seeking a new leader to succeed President Xiomara Castro, who is constitutionally limited to one term. Castro's administration, which ended decades of National and Liberal party dominance, has been credited with moderate economic growth and decreased poverty. The incoming president will face the challenge of uniting a deeply divided country and addressing persistent socio-economic issues.