A recent observation shared on social media by Crémieux has sparked discussion regarding the mortality rates among individuals experiencing homelessness. > "This is really interesting. I wonder why the sheltered and unsheltered homeless have basically identical mortality rates," Crémieux tweeted, highlighting a finding that challenges common perceptions. This statement aligns with findings from a significant national study on homelessness mortality.
Research published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in Working Paper 31843, authored by Bruce D. Meyer, Angela Wyse, and Ilina Logani, provides a comprehensive national calculation of mortality for the U.S. homeless population. This study tracked 140,000 individuals recorded as sheltered or unsheltered during the 2010 Census through 2022, using administrative data from the Social Security Administration. The researchers found that, after controlling for demographic factors such as gender and age, sheltered and unsheltered homeless individuals faced similar mortality risks.
The NBER study underscores that all individuals experiencing homelessness face substantially elevated baseline mortality rates compared to the housed population, regardless of their shelter status. A 40-year-old homeless person, for example, faces a mortality risk similar to a housed person nearly two decades older. This suggests that the profound health disparities associated with homelessness persist even for those in shelters, where access to some services might be available.
Despite these national findings, some regional studies have reported different outcomes, indicating higher mortality rates for unsheltered populations. For instance, a 10-year study in Boston found that unsheltered homeless adults had a death rate nearly three times higher than their sheltered counterparts and about 10 times higher than the general population. These regional disparities are often attributed to increased exposure to harsh weather, violence, and more limited access to consistent healthcare for those living on the streets.
Common causes of death across the homeless population include chronic diseases, substance use disorders, and injuries. The COVID-19 pandemic also significantly impacted this vulnerable group, with the NBER study noting a 33 percent rise in mortality risk for the homeless during the pandemic, a proportional increase similar to the housed population but affecting a much larger share due to their already high baseline rates. The complex interplay of health conditions, lack of stable housing, and systemic challenges contributes to the severe mortality burden faced by all homeless individuals.