Economist James Surowiecki recently highlighted a significant increase in native-born employment during the summer of 2023, citing a jump of 1.5 million jobs between May and July. This figure, derived from unadjusted data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), was presented by Surowiecki as a counterpoint to arguments, such as those made by Senator J.D. Vance, regarding the state of the American labor market and the impact of immigration. According to Surowiecki's tweet, "> I guess the concept of summer jobs is difficult for JD Vance to understand, but that's what this increase in native-born jobs reflects - in 2023, native-born employment jumped by 1.5 million just between May and July."
The 1.5 million increase in native-born employment from May to July 2023 is consistent with unadjusted BLS data for that period, which showed native-born employment rising from 130.948 million to 132.492 million. This type of month-to-month surge in unadjusted figures often reflects seasonal employment patterns, such as students and temporary workers entering the workforce during the summer months. The BLS typically applies seasonal adjustments to labor force data to account for these predictable trends, providing a clearer picture of underlying economic conditions.
Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) has been a vocal critic of current immigration policies, arguing they negatively impact the American workforce. Vance has stated that the Biden administration's border policies are "destroying America's middle class" and "American working class" by allowing immigrants to take jobs and drive down wages. His comments reflect a broader concern that increased immigration strains the domestic labor market and disadvantages native-born workers.
The debate over the impact of immigration on the U.S. labor market is ongoing among economists and policymakers. While some, like Vance, express concerns about job displacement and wage depression for native-born workers, others contend that immigrants fill labor shortages and contribute to overall economic growth. The interpretation of employment data, particularly the distinction between seasonally adjusted and unadjusted figures, remains central to these discussions.