New Product Management Method Promises to Double Prediction Accuracy in 90 Days

A new methodology designed to rapidly cultivate "product sense" in product managers is gaining traction, promising to double prediction accuracy within 90 days through structured feature analysis and prediction tracking. George Nurijanian, founder of prodmgmt.world and a senior product leader, outlined a "gym routine" approach, emphasizing that product sense is a learned skill rather than an innate talent. This system aims to build intuition through consistent practice, mirroring how other professional skills are developed.

The core of Nurijanian's system involves a four-step process: selecting a feature from a successful application, documenting a strategic hypothesis for its existence, predicting the product's next observable move, and verifying that prediction within four weeks using public signals. This iterative cycle, focused on "regular feature analysis with prediction tracking," is designed to sharpen a product manager's foresight and understanding of market dynamics. The approach moves beyond theoretical knowledge, emphasizing practical application and real-world validation.

As an example, Nurijanian cited Spotify's Wrapped feature, hypothesizing its strategic intent was to "drive social sharing during December when music discovery peaks and holiday playlist creation happens." This aligns with broader industry understanding that Spotify Wrapped is a highly effective marketing strategy for viral growth, retention, and brand visibility, leveraging personalized data storytelling to generate user-generated content. Predictions for Wrapped could include expansion to podcasts or earlier launches, with verification through app updates and blog announcements.

The methodology further details six exercises crucial for building pattern recognition, including strategic teardowns to understand "why THIS feature, not alternatives," and "next move predictions" for upcoming product changes. Other exercises involve business model mapping, competitive response analysis, user psychology, and failure prediction. These structured practices help product managers develop a deeper understanding of product strategy and market impact.

Nurijanian asserts that after 30 repetitions of this cycle, product managers will begin to recognize clear patterns, such as social features often indicating a fight against retention decline, or rapid feature removal pointing to zero usage. Verification sources are readily available and public, including App Store changelogs, product blogs, app rankings, review sentiment, press releases, and version histories. This reliance on accessible data underscores the practical and verifiable nature of the system.

Industry experts generally agree that strong product sense is a critical, yet learned, skill for product managers, involving deep product knowledge, user empathy, and business acumen. Methods like product teardowns and continuous user observation are widely recognized as effective ways to build this intuition. Nurijanian's structured approach provides a tangible framework for accelerating this development, moving beyond abstract concepts to actionable steps.

Product managers are encouraged to start immediately by picking a feature from a successful app like Notion, Linear, or Figma, forming a hypothesis, predicting the next step, and setting a reminder for verification. The promise is significant: "30 documented predictions = noticeable pattern recognition. 90 days = your prediction accuracy doubles," offering a clear path for professionals to enhance their strategic capabilities.