Nonproliferation Regime Shows Resilience Post-Iran Strikes, Expert Contends

Washington D.C. – The global nuclear nonproliferation regime, often perceived as under strain, may be demonstrating unexpected resilience, according to an analysis by Doreen Horschig. As highlighted by Lawfare, Horschig posits that the regime remains "strong—maybe even stronger than before," a perspective detailed in her Foreign Policy Essay. This assessment comes amid ongoing international scrutiny of nuclear ambitions and the effectiveness of existing safeguards.

Horschig, an associate fellow with the Project on Nuclear Issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), elaborates on this view by examining recent military actions. Specifically, she argues that the U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, despite initial fears of undermining global norms, might have inadvertently reinforced nonproliferation efforts. These operations, characterized by their limited scope and execution by a nation with a long-standing commitment to nonproliferation, were accepted by many countries and served as a deterrent signal to other states contemplating nuclear programs.

However, Horschig also acknowledges the broader challenges facing the regime. Her research indicates that the nonproliferation framework has been "in crisis," citing stalled arms control agreements, efforts by Russia and China to redefine nuclear order rules, and growing nuclear ambitions in countries like South Korea, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. These factors underscore the fragility of the system and the potential for increased covert counterproliferation operations if diplomatic efforts falter.

Despite these challenges, Horschig emphasizes the critical importance of strengthening the existing nonproliferation regime. Reinforcing transparency, ensuring International Atomic Energy Agency access to nuclear sites, and bolstering security assurances for non-nuclear states are crucial steps. Such measures aim to discourage new nuclear weapons programs and mitigate the necessity for riskier, less conventional counterproliferation strategies.

Ultimately, Horschig's analysis suggests a nuanced reality where, even in the face of significant geopolitical shifts and military interventions, the core tenets of nonproliferation can be reinforced. The long-term stability of the global nuclear order will depend on continuous diplomatic engagement and a collective commitment to upholding and adapting the foundational principles of the nonproliferation regime.