Pandemic's Indirect Global Shifts Underestimated, Says Stripe Co-founder Patrick Collison

Stripe co-founder Patrick Collison recently reflected on the profound and often underestimated ways the COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped the world, extending far beyond its immediate health crisis. He observed numerous "discontinuous jumps" in societal and economic trends that have not reverted to pre-pandemic baselines. These lasting shifts span from local economies to global demographics, indicating a significant reordering of daily life and established norms.

Collison highlighted anecdotal evidence from France, noting how many traditional shops, such as poissonneries and fromageries, reportedly closed during the pandemic, only to be supplanted by take-out establishments. This observation aligns with reports indicating significant closures and transformations within the small business sector across Europe during and after the pandemic. The shift reflects broader changes in consumer habits and urban retail landscapes.

The educational sphere has also seen dramatic changes, with Collison citing professors who describe substantial alterations in student behavior. > "Lecture attendance and willingness of students to complete reading assignments are both way down," he stated, pointing to a persistent challenge in post-pandemic academic engagement. This trend has been widely discussed in educational institutions grappling with evolving student expectations and learning environments.

Concerns about the reliability of official statistics have also emerged, particularly in the United Kingdom. Collison recounted a UK government official's admission that British economic data, including figures on trade, employment, and population, has become "much less reliable since the pandemic." The 2021 census is believed to be an undercount, potentially leading to an overestimation of GDP per capita and obscuring the true economic picture.

Social dynamics in Western cities have also shifted, with Collison observing "far fewer bustling workplaces" and a noticeable decline in vibrant nightlife in once lively cities like Madrid, Buenos Aires, and Bali. This transformation points to lasting changes in work culture, urban social patterns, and the global tourism industry. The preference for remote work and altered leisure activities contribute to these quieter urban centers.

Demographically, the pandemic appears to have accelerated immigration significantly across several Western nations. Collison noted a substantial increase in immigration to countries including the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia. This surge has contributed to demographic shifts and labor market adjustments in these nations, posing new challenges and opportunities for policy-makers.

In China, the lingering effects of stringent COVID lockdowns are evident, with Collison hearing descriptions of persistent "fear, caution, and conservatism." Western travel to China remains "massively depressed," reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and travel restrictions that have curtailed international exchange. This has isolated China to some extent from global travel patterns.

Despite these challenges, Collison also pointed to several "neutral, or even good" changes. He highlighted that "retail participation in the US stock market almost doubled overnight... and has persisted at that elevated rate." Additionally, firm creation in the US increased by approximately 50%, which he suggested "is probably a very good thing," indicating a surge in entrepreneurial activity post-pandemic.

Collison concluded by emphasizing the striking number of "time series" that underwent discontinuous jumps during COVID-19 and have not returned to their previous baselines. He pondered the best historical analogs for such widespread, indirect, and lasting global transformations, suggesting that perhaps only major wars offer comparable societal shifts.